Jordan Lieberman discussed upcoming 2008 election

Predicting election winners can be difficult because of changes in public’s views Jordan Lieberman, a political strategist told Mid-Year Workshop attendees.

“I am going to tell you everything I know about politics, except who is going to win, because I just don’t know and when I do predict who is going to win, I am usually wrong,” said Lieberman.

Lieberman, publisher of Campaigns and Elections magazine presented information regarding the upcoming election during Saturday’s session at the 2008 Mid-Year Educational Workshop.

Campaigns and Elections Politics magazine was launched in 1980 and Lieberman said he had an early interest in politicsand by the time he was 12 he was reading the publication. 

In 2006, he found investors and bought the magazine, renaming it Campaigns and Elections magazine.

Indicators of Who is Likely to Win  
2008 Presidential Election

 Fundraising, futures trading markets and staff hires are factors to look at when trying to figure out who will win an election, according to Lieberman.

“The futures trading market is more accurate in predicting who is going to win an election, versus polling,” said Lieberman. “Futures trading is one of the best ways to look at who is going to win before the pollsters actually show it.”

“Staff hires is another factor to look at, which is less predictive, but typically the campaign with the best talent wins,” he said.

Vice Presidential Candidates

Lieberman reviewed a number potential Vice Presidential candidates for John McCain, including:

• Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (CA)

• Gov. Charlie Christ (FL)

• Gov. Tim Pawlenty (MN)

Potential Vice Presidential candidates for Democrats include:

• Sen. Bill Bradley (NJ)

• Gen. Wes Clark 

• Gov. Tim Kaine (VA)

• Gov. Mary Landreiu (LA)

• Gov. Janet Napolitano (AZ)

• Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (KS)

• Gov. Mark Warner (VA)

Why Republicans Should be Terrified of Barack Obama

Republicans know how to defeat Hillary Clinton, Lieberman said.

“Its not that hard to do. She’s a liberal,” said Lieberman. 

“However, Barack Obama has become the John McCain of 2000,” said Lieberman. In open primaries, independent voters consistently chose Obama over McCain, even when both races were wide open.

“GOP strategists have no idea how to defeat a black presidential candidate who draws independent support,” Lieberman said. “ There is no plan on how to beat Barack Obama.  Republicans are terrified.  Its going to be a long time before they figure out how to beat this guy and probably too late.”

“He’s already talked about his problems, he has a beautiful family. Republicans haven’t found anything to stick and that’s why Republicans should be worried.”

Lieberman mentioned that a poll taken a few months ago by The Rider Institute of Politics reported 89% believe Democrats will retain control of Congress in 2008. 

As a result, it will be virtually impossible for Republicans to take back the Senate or the House, he said.